What is the climate sensitivity factor?

What is the climate sensitivity of a climate model?

How is climate sensitivity defined? Climate sensitivity is typically defined as the global temperature rise following a doubling of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere compared to pre-industrial levels. Pre-industrial CO2 was about 260 parts per million (ppm), so a doubling would be at roughly 520 ppm.

How do you calculate climate sensitivity?

It is usual to write R as αT, so that N = F − αT, where the climate feedback parameter α (W m2 K1) is the increase in radiation to space per unit of global warming. Its reciprocal s ≡ 1/α (K W1 m2), called the climate sensitivity parameter, is the steady state global warming per unit increase in radiative forcing.

What is equilibrium climate sensitivity?

Abstract. The equilibrium climate sensitivity of Earth is defined as the global mean surface air temperature increase that follows a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. For decades, global climate models have predicted it as between approximately 2 and 4.5 °C.

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What is Earth system sensitivity?

Abstract. The long-term temperature response to a given change in CO2 forcing, or Earth-system sensitivity (ESS), is a key parameter quantifying our understanding about the relationship between changes in Earth’s radiative forcing and the resulting long-term Earth-system response.

Why is climate sensitivity important?

Marvel: “The most important thing about climate sensitivity is that it’s not zero. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide definitely makes it warmer and increases the risk of extreme weather like drought, downpours, and heat waves. But better estimates of climate sensitivity are important for motivating action.

What would be climate sensitivity be with no feedbacks?

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS)

The Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in the absence of feedback is 1.2 K.

What is the largest source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity?

The representation of clouds is widely regarded as the largest source of uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity obtained by global climate models (GCMs) (Boucher et al.

Why is TCR lower than ECS?

Across an ensemble of ESMs, TCR values are less than ECS values because of deep-ocean heat uptake, which leads to a lag in the response of global temperature to the increasing CO2 concentration (Hansen et al., 1985).

What is the most important feedback involved in co2 climate sensitivity?

This positive feedback is known as the “water vapour feedback.” It is the primary reason that climate sensitivity is substantially greater than the previously stated theoretical value of 0.25 °C (0.45 °F) for each increase of 1 watt per square metre of radiative forcing.

What is meant by climate forcing?

Climate forcing is the physical process of affecting the climate on the Earth through a number of forcing factors. … Examples of some of the most important types of forcings include: variations in solar radiation levels, volcanic eruptions, changing albedo, and changing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

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What is CO2 sensitivity?

Different types of sensitivity. Climate sensitivity refers to the amount of global surface warming that will occur in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations compared to pre-industrial levels. CO2 has increased from its pre-industrial level of 280 parts per million (ppm) to around 408 ppm today.

What are climate projections?

Climate projections are simulations of Earth’s climate in future decades (typically until 2100) based on assumed ‘scenarios’ for the concentrations of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other atmospheric constituents that affect the planet’s radiative balance.

What are four sources of uncertainty in climate models today?

In particular the following uncertainty sources are identified and discussed: greenhouse gas (GHG) emission/concentration scenario, model configuration (or intra-model) and bias, internal unforced variability due to the non-linearities of the climate system, and downscaling uncertainty.

What is a climate thermostat?

Thermostat of the climate

“The Earth has an internal thermostat that regulates the concentrations of CO2 at its surface. … “The most important process of the climate thermostat is the chemical breakdown of silicate rocks, which removes CO2 from the atmosphere.

What is the greenhouse effect?

The greenhouse effect is the process by which radiation from a planet’s atmosphere warms the planet’s surface to a temperature above what it would be without this atmosphere. Radiatively active gases (i.e., greenhouse gases) in a planet’s atmosphere radiate energy in all directions.